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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ panthers week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-1
23
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
16
CARPanthers
3-2
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
6
7
3
23
Panthers
3
3
0
10
16

Spread

CHI logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
261
303
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
4.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
191
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.31
Rushing Yards
63
112
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
7
3rd Down %
50%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.80
-13.03
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-5.98
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
92
69
Penalty EPA
-13.04
-9.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model46.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+19.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-22.9
Final Difference
-23.0
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
12/23
11.7
98
12/30
1.9
61
01/06
1.1
54
01/13
-1.9
33
09/08
-3.2
30
11/17
2.4
69
11/24
0.1
52
12/01
-10.4
4
10/04
-0.8
39
10/08
-1.4
34
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Value
Ptile
09/22
2.8
71
09/29
-6.3
15
10/06
7.5
91
10/13
-1.0
47
10/20
3.9
79
09/13
2.3
62
09/20
-2.1
29
09/27
2.0
58
10/04
6.4
86
10/11
4.7
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bears logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18

EPA

EPA / Play
22
25
EPA / Pass
24
21
EPA / Rush
20
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
21
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Panthers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
24
13
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14

EPA

EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
13
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
28
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
-23
L
L
U
12/29
2
W
L
O
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/20
4
W
L
U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/08
1
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-8
L
L
O
12/08
-20
L
L
O
12/15
-6
L
P
O
12/22
-32
L
L
U
12/29
-32
L
L
O
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
10
W
W
U
10/11
7
W
W
U