CHIBears
4-1
23
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
16
CARPanthers
3-2
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
6
7
3
23
Panthers
3
3
0
10
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
303
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
4.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
191
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.31
Rushing Yards
63
112
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
7
3rd Down %
50%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.80
-13.03
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-5.98
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
92
69
Penalty EPA
-13.04
-9.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model46.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-62
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+19.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-23.0
Final Difference
-24.6
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
22
25
EPA / Pass
24
21
EPA / Rush
20
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
21
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
13
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
13
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U