CHIBears
1-4
27
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
7 mph
24
BALRavens
3-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
0
10
7
1
3
21
Ravens
0
3
7
8
0
18
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
293
Total Plays
75
71
Yards / Play
4.6
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.28
Passing Yards
111
168
Comp/Att
9/17(53%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.69
Rushing Yards
231
125
Rush Attempts
54
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
18
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.49
-20.20
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-23
-14
Sack EPA
-7.20
-4.18
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
44
69
Penalty EPA
-6.85
-9.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-34.3
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
30
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
17
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
23
11
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Ravens Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
20
13
EPA / Rush
14
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U