CHIBears
0-2
0
TBD
Lumen Field
60°F
5 mph
26
SEASeahawks
0-2
TBD
Lumen Field
60°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
0
0
0
Seahawks
3
3
14
6
26
Spread
-16.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
146
371
Total Plays
46
63
Yards / Play
3.2
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.17
Passing Yards
48
212
Comp/Att
9/17(53%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.19
Rushing Yards
98
159
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
17
Passing 1st downs
2
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-15
-23
Sack EPA
-3.50
-6.52
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
40
41
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-5.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+431
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+121.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-116.0
Market Regression
-0.3
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-116.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
10
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
28
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
5
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U