CHIBears
4-10
25
TBD
Lumen Field
25°F
11 mph
24
SEASeahawks
5-9
TBD
Lumen Field
25°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
7
11
25
Seahawks
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
331
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
4.6
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.02
Passing Yards
231
161
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.07
Rushing Yards
88
170
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
2.9
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-5.24
-3.69
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
73
88
Penalty EPA
-5.92
-8.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+49.2
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-43.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+32.4
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+32.4
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
12
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U