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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ seahawks week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-10
25
TBD
Lumen Field
25°F
11 mph
24
SEASeahawks
5-9
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
25°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
7
11
25
Seahawks
7
10
7
0
24

Spread

CHI logo
+7

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
319
331
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
4.6
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.02
Passing Yards
231
161
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.07
Rushing Yards
88
170
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
2.9
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-5.24
-3.69
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
73
88
Penalty EPA
-5.92
-8.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+49.2
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-43.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+32.4
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+32.4
Value
Ptile
11/17
2.4
69
11/24
0.1
52
12/01
-10.4
4
10/04
-0.8
39
10/08
-1.4
34
10/18
-0.5
42
10/26
-5.3
14
11/01
-2.4
27
11/08
3.1
68
11/16
-8.4
5
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
Value
Ptile
09/19
3.3
76
09/26
2.1
68
10/03
1.2
61
10/07
-2.6
34
11/14
-9.0
6
11/21
-6.3
13
11/29
0.8
59
12/05
0.4
56
12/12
3.1
76
12/21
-7.6
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bears logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
27
12
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17

EPA

EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
18
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Seahawks logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
6
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
3
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/17
-10
L
L
U
10/24
-35
L
L
U
10/31
-11
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
2
W
P
U
12/05
-11
L
L
O
12/12
-15
L
L
O
12/20
-8
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-9
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
P
10/25
-3
L
W
U
10/31
24
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
L
U
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/12
20
W
W
O
12/21
-10
L
L
U