CHIBears
4-9
12
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
030
MINVikings
11-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
3
9
12
Vikings
10
3
7
10
30
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
329
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.06
Passing Yards
171
215
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.07
Rushing Yards
113
114
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
8%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.79
-3.30
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-25
-16
Sack EPA
-9.17
-3.83
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
93
56
Penalty EPA
-11.49
-8.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
17
10
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
19
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U