CINBengals
0-1
30
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
8 mph
35
CLEBrowns
0-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
65°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
10
3
14
30
Browns
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
434
Total Plays
88
58
Yards / Play
4.0
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.32
Passing Yards
285
--
Comp/Att
37/61(61%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.48
Rushing Yards
68
215
Rush Attempts
24
35
Yards / Rush
2.8
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
23
Passing 1st downs
20
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
44%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-4.69
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-8.46
--
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
45
76
Penalty EPA
+2.95
-9.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
Bengals+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
-1.1
Final Difference
103.0
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Value
Ptile
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U