CINBengals
1-11
19
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
16 mph
27
CLEBrowns
5-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
7
3
3
19
Browns
1
7
10
3
21
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
333
Total Plays
72
52
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.08
Passing Yards
272
187
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
11/24(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.09
Rushing Yards
179
146
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.57
-8.30
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-5
Sack EPA
-3.33
-1.23
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
99
30
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,344
Home Field
+26.3
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
-21.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
-41.9
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
29
20
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
30
21
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U