CINBengals
1-3
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
031
INDColts
3-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
10
3
0
27
Colts
0
21
0
10
31
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
430
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
5.5
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.16
Passing Yards
300
371
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
29/44(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.31
Rushing Yards
98
59
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.55
-8.89
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.19
-0.97
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
20
55
Penalty EPA
-3.57
-6.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,397
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
6
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
1
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U