CINBengals
2-6
9
TBD
FedExField
57°F
7 mph
20
WASCommanders
2-7
TBD
FedExField
57°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
9
0
0
9
Commanders
7
0
10
3
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
325
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
4.1
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.05
Passing Yards
202
161
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.14
Rushing Yards
70
164
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.75
-2.03
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-5
Sack EPA
-7.29
-2.97
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
31
49
Penalty EPA
-2.40
-4.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.2
Home QB Adjustment
+45.9
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+22.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+45.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
25
7
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Commanders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29
EPA
EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
15
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U