BUFBills
-
23
TBD
Soldier Field
74°F
3 mph
20
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
74°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
7
10
0
3
3
23
Bears
7
0
10
3
0
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
427
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
6.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.06
Passing Yards
167
341
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.14
Rushing Yards
193
86
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
8
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
33%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.21
-19.27
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-1.31
-2.71
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
108
--
Penalty EPA
-11.27
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
Bills+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
+20.2
Final Difference
161.6
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
21
31
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
30
12
Bears Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
26
1
EPA / Rush
6
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
14
RZ Efficiency
2
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U