BUFBills
10-3
48
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
47°F
24 mph
19
DENBroncos
5-8
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
47°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
14
11
10
42
Broncos
0
13
0
6
19
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
534
255
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
8.2
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.52
-0.08
Passing Yards
352
115
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.64
-0.42
Rushing Yards
182
140
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
7.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
19
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
69%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-3.71
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.76
-11.80
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
75
33
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-7.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-190
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
+27.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
26
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
16
RZ Efficiency
27
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U