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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ broncos week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
10-3
48
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
47°F
24 mph
19
DENBroncos
5-8
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
47°F
24 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
14
11
10
42
Broncos
0
13
0
6
19

Spread

BUF logo
-6

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
534
255
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
8.2
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.52
-0.08
Passing Yards
352
115
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.64
-0.42
Rushing Yards
182
140
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
7.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
29
19
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
69%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-3.71
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.76
-11.80
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
75
33
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-7.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-193
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
+27.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
Value
Ptile
10/04
5.4
79
10/13
-0.4
43
10/19
-0.7
41
10/25
4.1
74
11/01
-1.6
32
11/08
6.2
85
11/15
2.1
59
11/29
-1.5
34
12/07
12.2
98
12/13
3.2
68
P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.3
52
09/20
-6.6
9
10/18
-9.6
4
10/25
-3.9
20
11/01
0.1
47
11/08
2.7
65
11/15
-11.9
2
11/22
-0.8
39
12/06
-4.0
20
12/13
6.0
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bills logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25

EPA

EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
16
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Broncos logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20

EPA

EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
26
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
16
RZ Efficiency
27
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
7
W
W
P
10/13
-26
L
L
O
10/19
-9
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
10
W
W
O
11/15
-2
L
W
O
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
O
12/13
11
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
9
W
W
O
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
-27
L
L
O
11/01
1
W
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/15
-25
L
L
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/29
-28
L
L
U
12/06
-6
L
W
U
12/13
5
W
W
O