BUFBills
6-6
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
5 mph
17
KCChiefs
8-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
3
3
20
Chiefs
0
7
7
3
17
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
346
Total Plays
73
62
Yards / Play
4.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.13
Passing Yards
209
264
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.17
Rushing Yards
118
82
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.05
-10.79
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-24
-7
Sack EPA
-4.66
-2.33
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-6.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+34.0
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-35.3
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-33.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+21.1
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
4
8
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
16
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U