BUFBills
15-3
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
7 mph
38
KCChiefs
15-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
9
3
3
9
24
Chiefs
0
21
10
7
38
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
439
Total Plays
71
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.39
Passing Yards
234
325
Comp/Att
28/49(57%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.58
Rushing Yards
129
114
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
7.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.52
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
29
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.75
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-53
--
Sack EPA
-8.87
-0.57
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-5.55
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model48.0%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-91
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-27.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+36.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-13.8
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+36.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
16
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
27
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
16
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U