nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jets week 10, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BUF logo
BUFBills
2-7
41
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
10 mph
10
NYJJets
3-6
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
17
7
3
41
Jets
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

BUF logo
+7

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
451
199
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
6.2
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.40
Passing Yards
239
116
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
17/34(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.70
-0.62
Rushing Yards
212
83
Rush Attempts
46
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.21
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-19
Sack EPA
-2.80
-4.24
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.03
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,260
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+52.2
Away QB Adjustment
+45.3
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Barkley headshot

M. Barkley

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+45.3
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.0
48
12/04
-3.6
22
12/11
-0.7
43
12/18
1.8
63
12/24
-6.0
12
01/01
-7.1
8
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+52.2
Value
Ptile
10/01
-4.5
22
10/08
-2.4
36
10/15
-0.0
52
10/22
0.6
56
10/29
3.2
75
11/02
1.6
64
11/12
-7.2
12
11/26
4.5
83
12/03
10.9
99
12/10
-11.2
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26

EPA

EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
20
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15

EPA

EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
31
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
30
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-7
L
W
U
09/09
-44
L
L
O
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
-22
L
L
U
10/07
1
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
W
U
10/21
-32
L
L
U
10/29
-19
L
L
U
11/04
-32
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-20
L
L
U
09/10
31
W
W
O
09/16
-8
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/07
18
W
W
O
10/14
8
W
W
O
10/21
-20
L
L
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-7
L
L
U