BUFBills
2-7
41
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
10 mph
10
NYJJets
3-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
17
7
3
41
Jets
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
199
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
6.2
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.40
Passing Yards
239
116
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
17/34(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.70
-0.62
Rushing Yards
212
83
Rush Attempts
46
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.21
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-19
Sack EPA
-2.80
-4.24
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.03
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,265
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+52.2
Away QB Adjustment
+45.3
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Barkley
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+45.3
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+52.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
20
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U