BUFBills
7-8
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
11 mph
30
NYJJets
4-11
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
7
10
Jets
0
10
10
4
24
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
230
329
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
3.7
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.54
-0.17
Passing Yards
162
202
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.18
Rushing Yards
68
127
Rush Attempts
28
30
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.73
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-8
Sack EPA
-7.19
-1.21
Penalties
--
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,387
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+63.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-53.9
Market Regression
-19.3
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-53.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
16
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
16
EPA / Pass
31
19
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
6
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
9-1
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U