BUFBills
2-2
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
014
DETLions
3-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
3
11
17
Lions
7
1
0
0
8
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
273
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
5.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.44
Passing Yards
294
204
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.35
Rushing Yards
51
69
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.66
-5.77
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-14
-27
Sack EPA
-3.41
-6.37
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
74
62
Penalty EPA
-9.07
-6.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+30.2
Market Regression
-9.0
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
28
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
30
11
Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
14
1
EPA / Rush
24
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U