BUFBills
6-9
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
8 mph
34
NEPatriots
11-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
7
10
20
Patriots
6
10
0
18
34
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
384
Total Plays
68
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.27
Passing Yards
224
117
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.14
Rushing Yards
169
267
Rush Attempts
35
43
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.80
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-23
-7
Sack EPA
-5.24
-1.18
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
31
Penalty EPA
-6.83
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+55.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-58.8
Market Regression
-36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lewis
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-58.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
26
15
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
11
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U