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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ patriots week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-9
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
8 mph
34
NEPatriots
11-4
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
7
10
20
Patriots
6
10
0
18
34

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
393
384
Total Plays
68
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.27
Passing Yards
224
117
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.14
Rushing Yards
169
267
Rush Attempts
35
43
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.80
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-23
-7
Sack EPA
-5.24
-1.18
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
31
Penalty EPA
-6.83
-3.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+55.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-58.8
Market Regression
-27.8
Final Difference
180.2
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

T. Lewis headshot

T. Lewis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-58.8
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.0
42
10/13
1.1
57
10/20
-5.4
17
10/27
-4.5
22
12/22
-3.2
30
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
10/13
-3.6
27
10/20
-8.1
7
10/27
-6.4
13
11/03
10.4
96
11/18
3.2
72
11/24
6.7
89
12/01
6.7
89
12/08
2.6
68
12/15
5.3
84
12/22
-1.9
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bills logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28

EPA

EPA / Play
26
15
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
9
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Patriots logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27

EPA

EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
11
RZ Efficiency
8
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-3
L
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/10
-13
L
L
U
11/17
23
W
W
O
12/01
-3
L
L
O
12/08
-21
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
19
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
3
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O
10/27
10
W
W
U
11/03
24
W
W
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
O
12/15
-4
L
L
U
12/22
34
W
W
O