BUFBills
3-4
9
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
021
HOUTexans
6-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
6
3
0
9
Texans
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
374
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
5.3
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
230
256
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.46
Rushing Yards
74
118
Rush Attempts
15
32
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.69
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-9
-12
Sack EPA
-5.40
-3.59
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
15
42
Penalty EPA
-1.15
-4.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
-20.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
14
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U