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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ texans week 9, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-4
9
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
21
HOUTexans
6-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
6
3
0
9
Texans
7
0
7
7
21

Spread

HOU logo
-11

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
304
374
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
5.3
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
230
256
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.46
Rushing Yards
74
118
Rush Attempts
15
32
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.69
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-9
-12
Sack EPA
-5.40
-3.59
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
15
42
Penalty EPA
-1.15
-4.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
-20.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Value
Ptile
12/18
-0.5
48
12/24
-0.9
46
01/01
-1.4
41
09/09
-0.8
43
09/16
3.7
73
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
-1.4
40
10/07
-4.6
22
10/14
-3.2
28
10/21
5.5
84
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
10/30
1.2
61
11/06
-1.5
40
11/13
3.6
75
09/09
1.3
59
09/16
1.6
60
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
3.3
71
10/08
-0.9
43
10/14
-6.6
11
10/21
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Bills logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6

EPA

EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
10
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Texans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
14
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
14
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
26
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
18
W
W
O
09/23
10
W
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-42
L
L
O
10/14
3
W
W
U
10/21
-1
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-1
L
P
O
01/07
21
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/08
6
W
L
U
10/14
-18
L
L
O
10/21
30
W
W
O