DENBroncos
9-6
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
8 mph
30
CINBengals
7-8
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
3
0
7
14
0
24
Bengals
0
7
3
14
6
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
499
Total Plays
60
84
Yards / Play
5.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.15
Passing Yards
206
384
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
39/49(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.29
Rushing Yards
123
115
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
34
Passing 1st downs
10
23
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.34
-3.42
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-13
-28
Sack EPA
-1.71
-9.65
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-6.30
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+38.7
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
-14.0
Net QB Adjustment
+11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+30.6
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+30.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
15
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
10
Interceptions / Game
15
9
Fumbles / Game
12
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
9
19
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
3
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
29
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
15
RZ Efficiency
5
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U