DENBroncos
3-7
3
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
17 mph
20
BUFBills
7-3
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
3
0
3
Bills
3
3
7
7
20
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
134
424
Total Plays
46
73
Yards / Play
2.9
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.40
+0.03
Passing Yards
49
180
Comp/Att
10/25(40%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
2.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.70
+0.13
Rushing Yards
85
244
Rush Attempts
17
47
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
22
Passing 1st downs
4
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.60
-2.78
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-33
-5
Sack EPA
-7.63
-1.64
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
70
90
Penalty EPA
-3.26
-9.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
Bills-4.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+84.7
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
+17.8
Net QB Adjustment
+107.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
-86.4
Market Regression
+0.3
Final Difference
148.3
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-86.4
Value
Ptile
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
2
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
10
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
15
25
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U