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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 3, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-1
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
23
LACChargers
2-0
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
10
3
20
Chargers
3
7
3
10
23

Spread

LAC logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
265
376
Total Plays
48
80
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
147
270
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.05
Rushing Yards
118
106
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
9
29
Passing 1st downs
5
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
15%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.27
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-6
-30
Sack EPA
-1.82
-9.71
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
90
25
Penalty EPA
-13.70
-4.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+27.8
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
11/17
9.5
96
11/24
2.1
64
12/02
-1.7
36
12/15
-4.6
19
12/19
5.5
82
12/28
3.4
72
01/05
15.5
100
01/12
-0.2
48
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
4.4
79
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
11/25
-0.9
43
12/01
-9.1
3
12/08
-0.8
43
12/15
-4.3
21
12/19
3.9
74
12/28
7.9
92
01/05
10.1
96
01/11
-11.8
1
09/05
6.8
91
09/15
2.9
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8

EPA

EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
13
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
4
29
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
16
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
23
20
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
27
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
32
W
W
U
11/24
10
W
W
O
12/02
9
W
W
O
12/15
18
W
W
P
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/05
38
W
W
U
01/12
-24
L
L
U
09/07
8
W
L
U
09/14
-1
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-7
L
L
O
12/01
4
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/19
7
W
W
O
12/28
33
W
W
O
01/05
14
W
W
O
01/11
-20
L
L
O
09/05
6
W
W
O
09/15
11
W
W
U