DENBroncos
1-1
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
023
LACChargers
2-0
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
10
3
20
Chargers
3
7
3
10
23
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
376
Total Plays
48
80
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
147
270
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.05
Rushing Yards
118
106
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
29
Passing 1st downs
5
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
15%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.27
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-6
-30
Sack EPA
-1.82
-9.71
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
90
25
Penalty EPA
-13.70
-4.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+27.6
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
16
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
11
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
22
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U