DENBroncos
0-4
20
TBD
StubHub Center
85°F
12 mph
13
LACChargers
2-2
TBD
StubHub Center
85°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
3
0
3
20
Chargers
0
0
1
6
7
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
246
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
6.4
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.33
Passing Yards
159
--
Comp/Att
14/20(70%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.34
Rushing Yards
191
35
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
6.0
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.01
-13.69
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-8.29
--
Penalties
12
4
Penalty Yards
122
43
Penalty EPA
-11.82
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model71.1%
Spread Pick
Chargers-4.5
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+20.3
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
-24.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.8
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
+0.6
Final Difference
156.1
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U