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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
0-4
20
TBD
StubHub Center
85°F
12 mph
13
LACChargers
2-2
LAC logo
TBD
StubHub Center
85°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
3
0
3
20
Chargers
0
0
1
6
7

Spread

DEN logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
350
246
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
6.4
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.33
Passing Yards
159
--
Comp/Att
14/20(70%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.34
Rushing Yards
191
35
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
6.0
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.01
-13.69
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-8.29
--
Penalties
12
4
Penalty Yards
122
43
Penalty EPA
-11.82
-5.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model71.2%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+20.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.9
Net QB Adjustment
+3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
157.3
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
09/30
5.0
80
10/07
-3.9
22
10/14
1.0
53
10/21
2.2
64
10/28
-5.7
14
11/04
-2.6
31
09/09
-0.7
48
09/15
2.4
69
09/22
-7.6
9
09/29
3.6
76
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Value
Ptile
12/09
-0.9
40
12/13
-2.9
28
12/22
-8.4
7
12/30
-3.8
23
01/06
-0.1
46
01/13
0.4
49
09/08
3.1
72
09/15
-1.1
45
09/22
1.0
60
09/29
4.9
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18

EPA

EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
18
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16

EPA

EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
25
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
22
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-6
L
L
U
12/15
-1
L
L
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
W
U
09/22
-11
L
L
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
5
W
L
U
12/13
1
W
W
O
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
6
W
W
U
01/13
-13
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
P
O
09/15
-3
L
L
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
20
W
W
U