DENBroncos
9-5
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LACChargers
8-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
14
3
3
27
Chargers
7
6
6
15
34
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
382
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
5.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.27
Passing Yards
245
265
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.38
Rushing Yards
110
117
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-21
Sack EPA
-3.04
-3.95
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
61
8
Penalty EPA
-7.98
-1.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+42.7
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-27.2
Home QB Adjustment
-14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
19
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U