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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
9-5
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
34
LACChargers
8-6
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
14
3
3
27
Chargers
7
6
6
15
34

Spread

LAC logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
355
382
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
5.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.27
Passing Yards
245
265
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.38
Rushing Yards
110
117
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-21
Sack EPA
-3.04
-3.95
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
61
8
Penalty EPA
-7.98
-1.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-27.2
Home QB Adjustment
-14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
10/06
1.5
59
10/13
1.8
62
10/17
3.0
69
10/27
7.7
92
11/03
-4.8
18
11/10
1.9
62
11/17
9.5
96
11/24
2.1
64
12/02
-1.7
36
12/15
-4.6
19
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.5
38
10/21
0.8
54
10/27
4.7
79
11/03
-0.6
45
11/10
4.0
75
11/17
3.7
73
11/25
-0.9
43
12/01
-9.1
3
12/08
-0.8
43
12/15
-4.3
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
19
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
3
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
18
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
16
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
23
W
W
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-31
L
L
O
11/10
-2
L
W
U
11/17
32
W
W
U
11/24
10
W
W
O
12/02
9
W
W
O
12/15
18
W
W
P
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/21
-2
L
L
U
10/27
18
W
W
U
11/03
17
W
W
U
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
W
O
11/25
-7
L
L
O
12/01
4
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O