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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 13, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
4-7
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
41°F
9 mph
22
KCChiefs
10-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
41°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
7
6
0
16
Chiefs
3
6
10
3
22

Spread

DEN logo
+13

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
330
447
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
313
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.15
Rushing Yards
179
134
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.09
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.41
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
31
44
Penalty EPA
-3.37
-3.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model86.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+369
Home nfelo
1,684
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+28.6
Home QB Adjustment
+34.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
-2.3
Final Difference
326.4
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
12/22
0.9
59
12/29
-3.0
31
09/14
1.3
52
09/20
-6.6
9
10/18
-9.6
4
10/25
-3.9
20
11/01
0.1
47
11/08
2.7
65
11/15
-11.9
2
11/22
-0.8
39
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+34.2
Value
Ptile
09/20
6.3
85
09/28
17.5
100
10/05
4.4
75
10/11
0.2
47
10/19
5.3
79
10/25
-3.6
21
11/01
13.8
99
11/08
8.6
94
11/22
6.6
87
11/29
13.3
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19

EPA

EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
26
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
23
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25

EPA

EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
9
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
12
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
19
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-5
L
W
O
09/27
-18
L
L
U
10/01
9
W
W
O
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
-27
L
L
O
11/01
1
W
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/15
-25
L
L
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/29
-28
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
3
W
L
U
09/28
14
W
W
U
10/05
16
W
W
U
10/11
-8
L
L
O
10/19
9
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
O
11/01
26
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/22
4
W
L
O
11/29
3
W
L
U