DENBroncos
4-7
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
41°F
9 mph
22
KCChiefs
10-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
41°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
7
6
0
16
Chiefs
3
6
10
3
22
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
447
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
313
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.15
Rushing Yards
179
134
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.09
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.41
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
31
44
Penalty EPA
-3.37
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model86.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+367
Home nfelo
1,685
Away nfelo
1,350
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+28.6
Home QB Adjustment
+34.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
325.7
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+34.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
26
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
23
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
20
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
12
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U