DENBroncos
1-0
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
029
INDColts
1-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
14
7
0
28
Colts
6
14
3
6
29
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
473
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
6.0
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.20
Passing Yards
--
306
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.32
Rushing Yards
118
167
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
44%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.87
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.45
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
83
62
Penalty EPA
-6.34
-8.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+38.0
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
-13.8
Net QB Adjustment
+7.3
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
8
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U