DENBroncos
2-5
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
015
INDColts
4-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
6
7
0
13
Colts
0
3
9
3
15
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
318
Total Plays
63
60
Yards / Play
4.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.10
Passing Yards
166
191
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.23
Rushing Yards
113
127
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.58
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-2.78
-9.67
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
88
103
Penalty EPA
-9.25
-14.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+88.7
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.1
Time Adj
+18.6
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-15.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
27
9
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
15
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
17
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
3
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U