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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ falcons week 9, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-4
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
34
ATLFalcons
2-6
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
3
21
27
Falcons
10
10
7
7
34

Spread

ATL logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
405
363
Total Plays
71
69
Yards / Play
5.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
302
271
Comp/Att
25/48(52%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.31
Rushing Yards
103
92
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
44%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.70
-2.56
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-1.58
-2.53
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
65
61
Penalty EPA
-7.50
-5.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
101.2
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Value
Ptile
12/01
-0.4
49
12/08
5.3
84
12/15
-7.4
10
12/22
0.9
59
12/29
-3.0
31
09/14
1.3
52
09/20
-6.6
9
10/18
-9.6
4
10/25
-3.9
20
11/01
0.1
47
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
12/22
2.5
69
12/29
-4.2
24
09/13
6.3
86
09/20
7.3
90
09/27
-4.1
19
10/05
-0.0
46
10/11
-5.9
11
10/18
10.4
96
10/25
3.3
69
10/29
1.0
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Falcons Defense
Broncos logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7

EPA

EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
26
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
23
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
7
RZ Efficiency
27
27
Falcons Offense vs Broncos Defense
Falcons logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
27
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
26
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-20
L
L
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
1
W
L
U
09/14
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-5
L
W
O
09/27
-18
L
L
U
10/01
9
W
W
O
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
-27
L
L
O
11/01
1
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
12
W
W
U
12/29
6
W
W
O
09/13
-13
L
L
O
09/20
-1
L
W
O
09/27
-4
L
L
O
10/05
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
17
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
L
U
10/29
8
W
W
U