DENBroncos
3-4
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
034
ATLFalcons
2-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
3
21
27
Falcons
10
10
7
7
34
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
363
Total Plays
71
69
Yards / Play
5.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
302
271
Comp/Att
25/48(52%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.31
Rushing Yards
103
92
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
44%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.70
-2.56
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-1.58
-2.53
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
65
61
Penalty EPA
-7.50
-5.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
101.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
26
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
23
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
7
RZ Efficiency
27
27
Falcons Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U