DENBroncos
3-3
33
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
010
NOSaints
2-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
13
10
1
27
Saints
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
271
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.4
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
174
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.62
Rushing Yards
225
97
Rush Attempts
35
21
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.38
-15.64
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-20.58
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
47
35
Penalty EPA
-5.66
-2.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
Saints+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+52.7
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-86.6
Home QB Adjustment
-89.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
-28.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-89.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
20
Interceptions / Game
15
12
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
10
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Saints Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U