CLEBrowns
6-9
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
64°F
7 mph
33
CINBengals
1-14
TBD
Paycor Stadium
64°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
9
0
7
23
Bengals
13
7
3
10
33
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
361
Total Plays
53
68
Yards / Play
5.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.17
Passing Yards
239
182
Comp/Att
12/27(44%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.22
Rushing Yards
74
179
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.39
-3.22
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-40
-8
Sack EPA
-8.81
-0.87
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
33
20
Penalty EPA
-3.52
-1.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,330
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
30
21
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
29
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U