CLEBrowns
5-7
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
46°F
016
DENBroncos
6-7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
46°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
3
0
7
17
Broncos
7
3
3
3
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
270
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
5.1
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
175
238
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.00
Rushing Yards
134
32
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.97
-6.55
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-19
Sack EPA
-6.91
-3.99
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
75
51
Penalty EPA
-5.95
-6.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
Broncos-1.5
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-28.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+29.8
Market Regression
-52.4
Final Difference
36.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.8
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
14
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
23
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
23
3
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U