CLEBrowns
4-9
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
020
ARICardinals
6-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
7
3
7
0
0
17
Cardinals
0
7
0
10
3
20
Spread
+6
Total
PUSH
37
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
363
Total Plays
62
74
Yards / Play
5.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
213
289
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.01
Rushing Yards
120
74
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.32
-4.88
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-5.51
-6.06
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
74
13
Penalty EPA
-8.71
-1.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model64.5%
Spread Pick
Browns+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-80.5
Home QB Adjustment
-43.7
Away QB Adjustment
+36.7
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
103.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+36.7
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-43.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
24
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Cardinals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U