CLEBrowns
10-4
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
5 mph
23
NYJJets
1-13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
7
6
16
Jets
7
6
7
3
23
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
333
Total Plays
75
69
Yards / Play
4.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.08
Passing Yards
254
202
Comp/Att
28/53(53%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.12
Rushing Yards
45
131
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.69
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-16
Sack EPA
-12.43
-3.75
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
51
58
Penalty EPA
-7.60
-5.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
Browns-6.5
Expected Value
+22.2%
Cover Probability
64.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-301
Home nfelo
1,268
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
+39.2
Final Difference
-231.0
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12
EPA
EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
18
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
28
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
32
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U