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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ jets week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
10-4
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
5 mph
23
NYJJets
1-13
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
7
6
16
Jets
7
6
7
3
23

Spread

NYJ logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
299
333
Total Plays
75
69
Yards / Play
4.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.08
Passing Yards
254
202
Comp/Att
28/53(53%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.12
Rushing Yards
45
131
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.69
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-16
Sack EPA
-12.43
-3.75
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
51
58
Penalty EPA
-7.60
-5.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model79.3%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+22.2%
Cover Probability
64.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-305
Home nfelo
1,266
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
+39.1
Final Difference
-232.9
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Value
Ptile
10/11
-0.8
39
10/18
-7.0
8
10/25
8.6
93
11/01
-5.3
14
11/15
-6.6
9
11/22
-5.7
13
11/29
-0.7
40
12/06
9.2
95
12/14
6.8
87
12/20
7.2
89
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Value
Ptile
09/13
-2.8
25
09/20
-0.3
44
09/27
-7.5
7
10/01
-0.3
44
10/25
-15.0
0
11/01
-2.4
27
11/29
-9.0
4
12/06
-1.4
34
12/13
-8.1
6
12/20
2.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Browns logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12

EPA

EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
10
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
18
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Jets logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9

EPA

EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
28
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
32
RZ Efficiency
32
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
-31
L
L
U
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
-10
L
L
U
11/15
3
W
L
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/14
-5
L
L
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-20
L
L
U
10/18
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-8
L
W
U
11/01
-26
L
L
U
11/09
-3
L
W
O
11/22
-6
L
W
O
11/29
-17
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
-37
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
U