CLEBrowns
1-2
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
034
DETLions
2-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
3
0
10
Lions
7
13
0
8
28
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
249
277
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
3.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.51
-0.12
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.60
-0.04
Rushing Yards
79
109
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
21%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.94
-3.42
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-7.12
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
44
35
Penalty EPA
-3.83
-5.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model82.0%
Spread Pick
Lions-10.0
Expected Value
+6.5%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+295
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.3
Market Regression
+7.5
Final Difference
263.6
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
27
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
10
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U