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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ lions week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-2
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
34
DETLions
2-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
3
0
10
Lions
7
13
0
8
28

Spread

DET logo
-10

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
249
277
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
3.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.51
-0.12
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.60
-0.04
Rushing Yards
79
109
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
21%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.94
-3.42
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-7.12
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
44
35
Penalty EPA
-3.83
-5.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model81.4%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.5%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+289
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.3
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
256.0
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Value
Ptile
01/13
-1.1
43
10/06
6.6
87
10/13
-0.6
45
11/03
-7.3
7
11/10
-3.1
27
12/29
0.3
50
01/05
-3.6
24
09/07
-1.1
41
09/14
-3.9
24
09/21
-6.8
8
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
11/28
1.9
62
12/05
6.0
85
12/15
13.6
99
12/22
8.0
93
12/30
7.1
90
01/05
-1.0
42
01/18
-4.6
19
09/07
-1.9
37
09/14
13.3
99
09/22
2.2
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Browns logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
31
23
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
27
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
16
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Lions logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
25
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
3
17
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
5
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
5
W
W
O
12/02
-9
L
L
O
12/08
-13
L
L
U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
12/22
-18
L
L
U
12/29
-17
L
L
U
01/04
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-1
L
W
U
09/14
-24
L
L
O
09/21
3
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
P
O
12/15
-6
L
L
O
12/22
17
W
W
O
12/30
6
W
W
O
01/05
22
W
W
U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O