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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ raiders week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-8
24
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
10
OAKRaiders
2-8
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
14
0
0
10
24
Raiders
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

CLE logo
+3

Total

UNDER
35.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
270
268
Total Plays
48
75
Yards / Play
5.6
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.46
Passing Yards
206
208
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
30/44(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.46
Rushing Yards
64
60
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
2.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
11
19
Passing 1st downs
4
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.29
-5.15
Sacks
1
10
Sack Yards
-3
-77
Sack EPA
-1.11
-20.68
Penalties
8
13
Penalty Yards
77
109
Penalty EPA
-7.95
-11.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
-21.9
Away QB Adjustment
-41.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

S. Sanders headshot

S. Sanders

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-41.0
No recent game data available
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Value
Ptile
09/07
0.7
57
09/15
-10.7
2
09/21
1.3
60
09/28
-3.7
25
10/05
-7.1
8
10/12
-4.2
22
10/19
-5.7
14
11/02
4.7
82
11/06
-8.7
4
11/17
-4.5
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Browns logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
20
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18

EPA

EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
27
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
30
24
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
24
22
Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Raiders logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14

EPA

EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
32
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
30
17
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
25
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-1
L
W
U
09/14
-24
L
L
O
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-24
L
L
U
10/05
-4
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/26
-19
L
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/15
-11
L
L
U
09/21
-17
L
L
O
09/28
-1
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
U
10/12
10
W
W
U
10/19
-31
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O