CLEBrowns
7-4
19
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
036
LARRams
5-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
3
3
6
19
Rams
10
3
7
14
34
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
399
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.7
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.10
Passing Yards
240
--
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.14
Rushing Yards
87
120
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.33
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-1.89
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
86
45
Penalty EPA
-8.78
-3.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model60.6%
Spread Pick
Browns+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+76.9
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+16.1
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
+74.6
Final Difference
74.6
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
32
24
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
1
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Rams Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
7
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
8
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U