CLEBrowns
-
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph
38
BALRavens
-
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
0
0
0
6
Ravens
10
14
7
7
38
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
381
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
4.5
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.23
Passing Yards
168
270
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.53
Rushing Yards
138
111
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
25%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.71
-5.42
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-14
Sack EPA
-5.51
-3.50
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
80
66
Penalty EPA
-8.49
-9.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
-36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
10
RZ Efficiency
4
15
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
19
23
EPA / Rush
1
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U