CLEBrowns
4-10
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
10 mph
20
BALRavens
10-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
1
7
8
Ravens
10
7
3
0
20
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
284
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
4.3
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.01
Passing Yards
139
122
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
11/24(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.11
Rushing Yards
117
162
Rush Attempts
25
37
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.17
-2.93
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-2.82
-1.60
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
95
51
Penalty EPA
-8.64
-4.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+37.8
Market Regression
-55.4
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+37.8
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U