CLEBrowns
7-7
24
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
2 mph
26
BALRavens
9-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
7
10
24
Ravens
10
10
3
3
26
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
463
Total Plays
56
73
Yards / Play
7.6
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
167
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.00
Rushing Yards
50
296
Rush Attempts
14
47
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
1
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.68
-5.53
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.73
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
35
65
Penalty EPA
-5.02
-7.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-62.2
Home QB Adjustment
-27.9
Away QB Adjustment
+34.3
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+34.3
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-27.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
14
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
29
10
RZ Efficiency
5
21
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
10
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U