CLEBrowns
0-0
18
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
021
NOSaints
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
6
6
18
Saints
3
0
0
18
21
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
277
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.16
Passing Yards
234
213
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
28/35(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.15
Rushing Yards
93
64
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-6.09
-9.24
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-12
-30
Sack EPA
-3.67
-7.26
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-5.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+66.3
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+21.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.4
Market Regression
+0.9
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
11
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
5
23
Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
21
Yards / Game
8
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
4
3
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
0-9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U