nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 18, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CLE logo
CLEBrowns
11-5
48
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
1 mph
37
PITSteelers
12-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
22
7
0
13
42
Steelers
0
10
13
14
37

Spread

CLE logo
+4

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
390
555
Total Plays
65
87
Yards / Play
6.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
47/71(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.10
Rushing Yards
127
52
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
20
34
Passing 1st downs
12
29
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-29.37
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-1.21
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Value
Ptile
10/25
8.6
93
11/01
-5.3
14
11/15
-6.6
9
11/22
-5.7
13
11/29
-0.7
40
12/06
9.2
95
12/14
6.8
87
12/20
7.2
89
12/27
-7.3
7
01/03
1.8
57
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
10/25
-2.1
29
11/01
0.8
50
11/08
8.0
92
11/15
6.8
87
11/22
1.8
57
12/02
3.1
67
12/07
2.9
66
12/13
-4.2
18
12/21
-6.4
10
12/27
7.1
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13

EPA

EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
10
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
32
RZ Efficiency
8
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
-10
L
L
U
11/15
3
W
L
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/14
-5
L
L
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
2
W
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
4
W
W
O
11/08
5
W
L
U
11/15
26
W
W
O
11/22
24
W
W
U
12/02
5
W
L
U
12/07
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-11
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
O
01/03
-2
L
W
O