CLEBrowns
11-5
48
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
1 mph
37
PITSteelers
12-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
34°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
22
7
0
13
42
Steelers
0
10
13
14
37
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
555
Total Plays
65
87
Yards / Play
6.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
47/71(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.10
Rushing Yards
127
52
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
34
Passing 1st downs
12
29
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-29.37
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-1.21
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
32
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U