CLEBrowns
2-1
14
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
07
MINVikings
1-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
11
0
3
14
Vikings
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
255
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
4.4
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.26
Passing Yards
145
190
Comp/Att
15/34(44%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.26
Rushing Yards
184
65
Rush Attempts
38
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
39%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.06
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-6.47
-4.17
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
73
42
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-7.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
N/A
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model47.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+49.8
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
16.8
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
22
6
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
14
12
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
12
15
Vikings Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
10
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
7-2-1
O/U