TBBuccaneers
1-0
7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
040
ARICardinals
0-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
7
0
7
Cardinals
0
24
3
7
34
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
416
Total Plays
76
65
Yards / Play
4.0
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.13
Passing Yards
221
311
Comp/Att
27/52(52%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.40
Rushing Yards
85
105
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-24.30
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-4
Sack EPA
-6.76
-1.15
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
39
30
Penalty EPA
-4.58
-2.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+37.1
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.7
Net QB Adjustment
-8.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9
EPA
EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22
EPA
EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
5
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U