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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ cardinals week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-0
7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
40
ARICardinals
0-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
7
0
7
Cardinals
0
24
3
7
34

Spread

ARI logo
-7

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
306
416
Total Plays
76
65
Yards / Play
4.0
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.13
Passing Yards
221
311
Comp/Att
27/52(52%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.40
Rushing Yards
85
105
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-24.30
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-4
Sack EPA
-6.76
-1.15
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
39
30
Penalty EPA
-4.58
-2.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+37.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-21.0
Net QB Adjustment
-8.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
11/08
1.7
63
11/15
-4.4
17
11/22
7.1
91
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78
12/27
-0.2
49
01/03
0.4
52
09/11
6.6
88
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
11/22
3.3
75
11/29
1.2
59
12/06
4.9
81
12/10
4.2
79
12/20
0.2
52
12/27
1.1
58
01/03
-3.9
22
01/16
1.5
62
01/24
-9.2
3
09/11
1.8
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9

EPA

EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
28
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22

EPA

EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
20
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
5
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
4
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/27
-5
L
L
O
01/03
-28
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/29
6
W
L
U
12/06
24
W
W
U
12/10
3
W
L
U
12/20
23
W
W
O
12/27
30
W
W
U
01/03
-30
L
L
U
01/16
6
W
L
U
01/24
-34
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
U