TBBuccaneers
3-6
30
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
9 mph
20
MIADolphins
4-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
17
0
4
24
Dolphins
7
0
6
7
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
448
Total Plays
62
60
Yards / Play
5.2
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.26
Passing Yards
268
365
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.08
Rushing Yards
53
83
Rush Attempts
24
19
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
40%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-25.30
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.45
-0.73
Penalties
9
17
Penalty Yards
82
123
Penalty EPA
-8.49
-24.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model47.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-17.4
Market Regression
-48.1
Final Difference
17.2
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
7
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
20
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
25
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
20
28
Fumbles / Game
32
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Dolphins Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
29
23
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
3
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U