TBBuccaneers
8-3
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
017
ATLFalcons
5-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
13
7
7
3
30
Falcons
7
4
0
0
11
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
380
Total Plays
68
69
Yards / Play
6.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
259
Comp/Att
38/51(75%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.14
Rushing Yards
57
121
Rush Attempts
17
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
22
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
62%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.97
-2.27
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-38
Sack EPA
--
-10.27
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
15
39
Penalty EPA
-3.25
-6.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-269
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,681
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.1
Home QB Adjustment
-20.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
-27.5
Final Difference
-269.4
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
3
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
11
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U