nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ packers week 13, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-7
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
42°F
8 mph
26
GBPackers
5-6
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
42°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
0
10
0
20
Packers
3
8
0
3
6
20

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
395
276
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
5.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.06
Passing Yards
230
77
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.43
Rushing Yards
165
199
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
56%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.79
-2.76
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-40
-7
Sack EPA
-19.20
-3.59
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
74
47
Penalty EPA
-4.39
-4.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model53.0%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-114.5
Home QB Adjustment
-122.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+45.9
Final Difference
20.9
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Value
Ptile
12/24
-1.0
41
01/01
-3.9
20
09/17
-1.8
40
09/24
-0.1
50
10/01
6.3
89
10/05
0.9
58
10/15
-5.3
18
10/22
9.0
96
10/29
-7.3
11
11/05
-6.4
14
B. Hundley headshot

B. Hundley

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-122.9
Value
Ptile
10/22
-3.3
29
11/06
1.8
66
11/12
0.8
58
11/19
-9.8
3
11/26
2.9
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
25
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
23
30
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
23

EPA

EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
2
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
4
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-17
L
L
O
10/01
2
W
L
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
-20
L
L
U
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/26
-14
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/08
4
W
W
O
10/15
-13
L
L
U
10/22
-9
L
L
U
11/06
-13
L
L
O
11/12
7
W
W
O
11/19
-23
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
W
O