TBBuccaneers
4-7
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
42°F
8 mph
26
GBPackers
5-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
42°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
0
10
0
20
Packers
3
8
0
3
6
20
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
276
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
5.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.06
Passing Yards
230
77
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.43
Rushing Yards
165
199
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
56%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.79
-2.76
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-40
-7
Sack EPA
-19.20
-3.59
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
74
47
Penalty EPA
-4.39
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+45.7
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.9
Net QB Adjustment
-114.5
Home QB Adjustment
-122.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
25.1
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-122.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
25
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
23
30
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U