TBBuccaneers
5-8
12
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
10 mph
20
BALRavens
7-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
9
3
0
12
Ravens
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
370
Total Plays
48
74
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.02
Passing Yards
156
128
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.36
-0.00
Rushing Yards
85
242
Rush Attempts
22
49
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
16
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
30%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.66
-5.82
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-3
Sack EPA
-2.03
-2.15
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
58
70
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-9.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.6
Home QB Adjustment
-34.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-34.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
2
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
9
4
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
25
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Ravens Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
6
26
Fumbles / Game
28
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U