ARICardinals
2-0
15
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
7 mph
16
SF49ers
2-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
3
3
7
13
49ers
0
6
0
10
16
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
355
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
4.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.03
Passing Yards
154
282
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.04
Rushing Yards
106
73
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.17
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-2
Sack EPA
-0.18
-1.73
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
69
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-8.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-53.1
Home QB Adjustment
-52.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-52.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
28
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
17
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
19
11
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
21
13
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
31
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U