ARICardinals
9-2
33
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
8 mph
22
CHIBears
4-7
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
14
7
3
9
33
Bears
0
7
7
8
22
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
331
Total Plays
52
72
Yards / Play
4.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.10
Passing Yards
120
219
Comp/Att
11/16(69%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.36
Rushing Yards
137
112
Rush Attempts
35
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-25.33
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-12
Sack EPA
-1.04
-3.43
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
63
45
Penalty EPA
-9.92
-5.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-146
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+15.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-29.9
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+15.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-15.4
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
18
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
29
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
13
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
30
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U