ARICardinals
2-3
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
031
INDColts
4-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
14
3
27
Colts
7
7
3
14
31
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
355
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.22
Passing Yards
312
205
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.09
Rushing Yards
88
150
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
64%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-6.09
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-2.44
-1.39
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-4.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+68.8
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
+94.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
-74.1
Market Regression
+50.3
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-74.1
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
11
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
25
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
18
24
Colts Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U