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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ jets week 5, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
2-2
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
8 mph
10
NYJJets
0-4
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
7
6
30
Jets
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

ARI logo
-7

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
496
285
Total Plays
69
64
Yards / Play
7.2
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.16
Passing Yards
369
162
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.14
Rushing Yards
127
123
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
28
21
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.54
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-33
Sack EPA
-2.11
-4.93
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
59
30
Penalty EPA
-7.84
-3.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-179
Home nfelo
1,332
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-39.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Value
Ptile
11/17
6.3
88
12/01
-7.2
11
12/08
-7.4
10
12/15
4.5
81
12/22
-1.4
44
12/29
1.4
64
09/13
5.7
81
09/20
7.1
88
09/27
0.2
48
10/04
8.1
93
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Value
Ptile
10/28
-5.7
14
11/04
-2.6
31
09/09
-0.7
48
09/15
2.4
69
09/22
-7.6
9
09/29
3.6
76
10/06
-4.5
23
10/13
-4.6
22
10/17
-9.3
6
10/27
-3.7
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Jets Defense
Cardinals logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
3
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
23
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Jets Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Jets logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
21

EPA

EPA / Play
32
9
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
28
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
22
Interceptions / Game
23
20
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
32
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-10
L
P
O
12/01
-27
L
L
U
12/08
-6
L
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
O
12/22
14
W
W
U
12/29
-7
L
P
O
09/13
4
W
W
U
09/20
15
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U
10/04
-10
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
31
W
W
U
12/01
-16
L
L
U
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/12
-21
L
L
O
12/22
6
W
W
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
-29
L
L
U
10/01
-9
L
L
O